VLCC tanker market report and a TABLET to be won!By james tweed • Jun 7th, 2013 • Category: Tankers
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Thanks for downloading the Tanker Market report podcast from Coracle and Braemar Seascope for June 7th 2013. This report looks at the VLCC market this week.
Before we start we want to encourage you to enter a competition. You could win yourself a new tablet! All you need to do is record a very short video, nothing fancy, about your job. The aim is to inspire the next generation to the industry. Submit your entry before June 16th at www.seavision.org.uk/mymaritimeworld
Traditionally, when charterers need to re-enter the market to replace late running ships they can expect to pay a premium over what they had previously fixed. However, this week they have managed to replace at lower freight rates than previously fixed. This proves the owners’ confidence is starting to wane and while last week they were in the, “we’ll not push for higher rates but we’ll fix at last done”, mentality, this week we have moved more into the “let’s fix slightly lower than last done and get fully fixed at these rates in case the market slips further.” There is a very fine line between a firm and a softening market, and this week we have crossed it. There was never a shortage of tonnage as such; more it seemed a bottleneck of cargoes. Rather than the continued stampede of cargoes of the previous weeks, charterers held back and relaxed, replaced late running ships fixed under duress last week and tried to wrest control back from the shipowners. This had an effect as rates have slipped from last week’s high of 270 at 47.5 achieved on older tonnage to 270 at 42.5. If there hadn’t been delays in Singapore the market could have slipped further since most of the VLCC activity this week has been replacement business. There is sometimes a strange dichotomy, when the market changes direction, those with modern vessels were pushing for the 50 have been left behind, while those veterans such as Cosmic Jewel, La Paz, Front Opalia which accepted rates around 47 last week have been shown to have been correct, proving experience counts!
There has been little or no AG/West activity and charterers are holding off waiting for rates to realign a little lower before entering the market. One senses that the next fixture will be at low 20’s via the cape.
The 30 day availability index at Fujairah shows 52 VLCCs, of which 5 are over 15 years old, which compares to 41 last week. This month we have counted a total of about 100 fixtures, which leaves 10 cargoes to be covered.
In West Africa, charterers for West Africa/China were seeking to take advantage of the softening eastern market and having managed to fix 260 at 42 last week, they had 40 on their horizon. This was achieved, followed by 38.5. Some owners spotted this trend and managed to get in earlier than others. A glance at the tonnage list usually helps one make an informed decision and on this market owners must take their chances when they are presented, as if they do not, others will. Fixing West Africa/China at 40 gives earnings above $20,000/day for 80 days round trip, and when the market subsequently softens, the owner has been proven correct.
Thanks for listening