Currency report April 23By james tweed • Apr 24th, 2012 • Category: Currency
Significant items this week:
Tues 24th April UK – House prices
US – New home sales
Wed 25th April UK – Q1 GDP first cut
US – FOMC meeting – Interest rate meeting
Thurs 26th April EU – German CPI
Fri 27th April UK – Consumer confidence
EU – German consumer confidence
US – Q1 GDP first cut, Personal consumption expenditures
Thank you for downloading the foreign exchange market report podcast for April 23rd from Coracle Online and Crossbar fx.
Just when it seems that the markets are beginning to react and move in predictable and understandable ways in accordance to events as they happen, it all changes… Last week the US Dollar weakened, mainly on the conundrum of whether you think their economy is recovering as hoped. Also as to whether or not you think that Mr Bernanke is hatching more QE, perhaps for delivery in June once he sees the first cut of the Q1 figures on Friday. Shares across the globe are sliding as earnings reports reveal that all is not well and consumers are nowhere near ready to get out there and spend.
Until now anxiety of any sort regarding Europe, especially after the weak manufacturing data, and political uncertainty in France and the Netherlands meant that the Euro declined and the US Dollar strengthened. Well, not last week: we saw the Euro weaken and it continues to do so, but so too has the US Dollar. Someone out there thinks that the UK is in better shape, so Sterling strengthens, amongst a few other currencies. How long this current theme will last is impossible to say. Especially as the slowing of the Chinese economy is beginning to grab the headlines.
UK GDP for Q1 is the subject of much debate and many expect it to be positive – just. CPI ticked up for the first time since it peaked last Autumn – rising from 3.5% from 3.4% and raising the question as to whether the Bank Of England have a grip on inflation, and that this is a blip along the way to getting it down to the 2% target. Retail sales and consumer confidence data released later this week should add some substance to the debate.
Thanks for listening