Global appetite for risk is UP! Currency report Oct 17By james tweed • Oct 17th, 2011 • Category: Currency
Significant items this week:
Tues 18th Oct UK – CPI, RPI
EU – German economic sentiment survey
Wed 19th Oct US – CPI, Building permits and housing starts
Thurs 20th Oct UK – Retail Sales
US – Existing home sales, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
Fri 21st Oct UK – Public sector borrowing
Thank you for downloading the foreign exchange market report podcast from Coracle Online and Crossbar fx for October 17th 2011.
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Now for the foreign exchange report and once again the global appetite for risk improved last week as Eurozone policy makers appeared to move closer towards resolving the E.M.U debt crisis. Everyone is cautious though as the global economic picture is unsettled with each new poor economic data release. The Euro has maintained its strength despite more downgrades: this time it was Spain’s sovereign credit rating, and their banks. The European financial stability facility has been expanded to 440 billion Euros and Slovakia eventually signed off on it. Everyone is agreed that Greece will get its next tranche of bailout funds next month. So one could be forgiven for thinking that all was well in the garden of Europe. After all, we’ve had 10 days of continuous rises on the equity markets and a strong currency but what is of greater importance is the long term outlook and frankly it’s not good. Creating bailout funds is, in short, creating more debt for tomorrow in order to survive today… but the debt doesn’t go away. The economy is not picking up and US consumers, and to a degree the Chinese, have slowed down. The fund isn’t big enough to bail out a large economy, say Spain, should they get into further trouble, so there’s plenty to occupy those looking further afield than the next few weeks. They have talked Euro weakness for a year now.. but here we are , still under 1.15 against the Pound.
In the UK the economic outlook continues to cause concern. Unemployment data shows that the UK’s jobless rate is at its highest for 17 years, with unemployment up 114,000 in September. The total is now 2.57 million, and the down-grading of 12 banks’ credit ratings hasn’t filled the market with optimism. Inflation is expected to increase and there is talk of the economy stalling, again, but, when growth is at 0.1%, there isn’t much room to manoeuvre. In fact the margin of error in measuring output is such that the reality is we are flat lining anyway.
Thanks for listening